1. Coastal & North Coastal Districts
(Chennai, Tiruvallur, Chengalpattu, Kanchipuram, Cuddalore, Villupuram, Nagapattinam, Mayiladuthurai)
Outlook: Normal to Above Normal Rainfall (June–Sept)
- Early monsoon showers expected due to Bay of Bengal systems
- Higher variability (short intense spells + dry gaps)
- Coastal Tamil Nadu often receives higher rainfall during NE monsoon, but SW monsoon still contributes intermittently
👉 Risk:
- Short-duration flooding
- Waterlogging in low-lying delta areas
🌾 2. Cauvery Delta Districts
(Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Tiruchirapalli, Ariyalur, Perambalur)
Outlook: Slightly Below to Normal Rainfall
- Historically lower SW monsoon contribution
- Recent trends show rainfall variability and deficits in central districts
👉 Risk:
- Delayed sowing
- Dependence on irrigation (Mettur release critical)
🌄 3. Western Districts (Rain-shadow zone)
(Coimbatore, Tiruppur, Erode, Karur, Namakkal, Salem)
Outlook: Below Normal Rainfall
- Shielded by Western Ghats → weak SW monsoon penetration
- Likely dry spells during peak crop stages
👉 Risk:
- Moisture stress
- High irrigation dependency
🌿 4. Western Ghats & High Rainfall Belt
(Nilgiris, Valparai region, parts of Coimbatore & Theni)
Outlook: Above Normal Rainfall
- Strong orographic rainfall
- Frequent moderate to heavy showers
👉 Risk:
- Soil erosion
- Landslides (localized)
🌴 5. Southern Districts
(Madurai, Dindigul, Theni, Virudhunagar, Sivagangai, Ramanathapuram)
Outlook: Below to Near Normal Rainfall
- Patchy distribution expected
- More rainfall during NE monsoon than SW monsoon
👉 Risk:
- Long dry spells
- Crop stress in rainfed areas
🌧️ 6. South Coastal Belt
(Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli, Kanniyakumari, Tenkasi)
Outlook: Near Normal Rainfall
- Some benefit from both SW & convective rains
- IMD indicates isolated heavy rainfall events in south TN periodically
👉 Risk:
- Uneven distribution
- Sudden heavy rainfall events
📊 Overall State Summary (Kharif 2026)
- North & Coastal TN: Better rainfall prospects
- Delta & Interior: Moderate risk (irrigation dependent)
- Western belt: Dry risk zone
- Western Ghats: Excess rainfall zone
👉 Extended outlooks suggest below-normal rainfall tendency in some periods over Tamil Nadu
🌱 Practical Interpretation for Agriculture
- Best rainfed zones: Coastal + Ghats districts
- Moderate zones: Delta (with irrigation support)
- High-risk zones: Western & Southern interior
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